De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.80 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Dordrecht 2W, 5D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 66% versus Dordrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 63% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.085 / defence 1.158 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.474. Data: 68 De Graafschap games / 68 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Dordrecht 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.085 / def 1.158 | Dordrecht attack 0.887 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Dordrecht xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 5 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.08) and Dordrecht's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.89x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.57
25%
4.04
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.09
1.51
Dordrecht xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.67
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.51 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 70 games, going 33W 16D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.61 PPG from 70 outings (32W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.61 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 21W 6D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.31 points per game from 35 outings (13W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.60 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 33W 16D 21L in their last 70 games (1.64 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 32W 17D 21L in their last 70 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.97 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.31 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 63%, Dordrecht 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (De Graafschap) and 54% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dordrecht in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of De Graafschap's games and 49% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of De Graafschap's matches and 54% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Dordrecht 2-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.64 PPG, Dordrecht 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.