Almere City FC 3-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 40%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almere City FC vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Almere City FC welcome Heracles to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Heracles — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Heracles — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Heracles trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 54% versus Heracles 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 67% | Heracles 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.67 xG and Heracles 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.979 / defence 1.002 | Heracles attack 1.176 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.321. Data: 50 Almere City FC games / 12 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Heracles 36%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 40% | Heracles 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Heracles 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Almere City FC 1.67 / Heracles 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.979 / def 1.002 | Heracles attack 1.176 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Heracles xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Heracles kick off?
Almere City FC vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Almere City FC 3 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Almere City FC vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Heracles part of?
Almere City FC vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 40% chance of winning, Heracles a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Almere City FC and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
40%
2.47
24%
4.22
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.22
1.56
Heracles xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.56 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 16W 9D 23L from 48 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 22L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.19 PPG, Heracles on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 8W 4D 12L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 6W 2D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.38 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Heracles in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Heracles have gone 18W 8D 22L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Heracles away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Heracles away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Heracles won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
3
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Almere City FC 0-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 42%, Heracles 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Almere City FC and 58% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 38% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 58% of Heracles's.
Do Almere City FC and Heracles tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Heracles 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Heracles 3-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.67 xG and Heracles 1.56 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Heracles attack 1.18 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 40% | Draw 24% | Heracles 36%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 67%, Heracles 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.19 PPG, Heracles 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.