Almere City FC 2-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Almere City FC welcome FC Eindhoven to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 76% and FC Eindhoven 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 76% | FC Eindhoven 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.40 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.597 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.013 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.487. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Almere City FC games / 17 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 21% | Draw 19% | FC Eindhoven 60%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | FC Eindhoven 1.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 75% | FC Eindhoven 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 21% | Draw 19% | FC Eindhoven 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Almere City FC 1.40 / FC Eindhoven 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.918 / def 1.597 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.013 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.40
FC Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 21% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
21%
4.68
19%
5.27
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.81
2.40
FC Eindhoven xG
4.68
21%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
9%
11.08
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
2%
51.89
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.40 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 3W 4D 10L from 17 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 6L across 17 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.88 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.62 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 75%, FC Eindhoven 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Almere City FC and 50% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Almere City FC's games and 38% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Almere City FC's matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.40 xG and FC Eindhoven 2.40 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.60 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.01 / defence 1.26, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 21% | Draw 19% | FC Eindhoven 60%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 76%, FC Eindhoven 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.