Almere City FC 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 20 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 1D 2L at Yanmar Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Almere City FC, 1.70 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 55% versus De Graafschap 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 64% | De Graafschap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.91 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.882 | De Graafschap attack 1.098 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.357. Data: 58 Almere City FC games / 58 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 51% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 1.91 / De Graafschap 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.155 / def 0.882 | De Graafschap attack 1.098 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Almere City FC 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 51% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.10x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
51%
1.94
22%
4.49
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.31
De Graafschap xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
4%
25.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.31 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 22W 10D 26L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 21L across 58 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.36 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 12W 4D 12L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 12W 5D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 10D 26L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.43 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 46%, De Graafschap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Almere City FC and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 57% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Almere City FC and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.91 xG and De Graafschap 1.31 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against De Graafschap attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 51% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 26%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 64%, De Graafschap 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.