Almere City FC 1-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees ADO Den Haag travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (0.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. ADO Den Haag are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 85% and ADO Den Haag 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 77% | ADO Den Haag 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.51 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.086 / defence 1.534 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.928 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.557. Data: 13 Almere City FC games / 13 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 20% | ADO Den Haag 54%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.85 | Draw 5.00 | ADO Den Haag 1.85. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 83% | ADO Den Haag 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 26% | Draw 20% | ADO Den Haag 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Almere City FC 1.51 / ADO Den Haag 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.086 / def 1.534 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.928 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.22
ADO Den Haag xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Almere City FC 1 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 26% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 54% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.09) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
26%
3.85
20%
4.92
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.72
2.22
ADO Den Haag xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
11%
9.17
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
3%
35.33
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.22 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 3D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of ADO Den Haag's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.92 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.83 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Almere City FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 83%, ADO Den Haag 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Almere City FC and 50% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 33%; ADO Den Haag in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Almere City FC's games and 33% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Almere City FC's matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Almere City FC 1-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.51 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.22 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.53 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 26% | Draw 20% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 77%, ADO Den Haag 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.