ADO Den Haag 0-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cars Jeans Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 0D 1L at Cars Jeans Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for ADO Den Haag, 2.20 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 54% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 64% | Excelsior 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.93 xG and Excelsior 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.288 / defence 1.128 | Excelsior attack 1.061 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 ADO Den Haag games / 11 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 33%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 3.03. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | Excelsior 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.93 / Excelsior 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.288 / def 1.128 | Excelsior attack 1.061 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Excelsior xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 45% chance of winning, Excelsior a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Excelsior (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.29) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.06x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
45%
2.20
22%
4.57
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.54
1.61
Excelsior xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.61 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 7W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 7W 1D 3L from 11 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.09 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 2.00 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.00 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Excelsior in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Excelsior away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.40 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.80 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Excelsior in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 7-1 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Excelsior have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 60%, Excelsior 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for ADO Den Haag and 80% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Excelsior in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of ADO Den Haag's games and 60% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 80% of Excelsior's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Excelsior tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 0-2 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.93 xG and Excelsior 1.61 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.29 / defence 1.13 against Excelsior attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 45% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 33%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 64%, Excelsior 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 2.09 PPG, Excelsior 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.