ADO Den Haag 0-5 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bingoal Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus Excelsior in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 2W 4D 4L at Bingoal Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for ADO Den Haag, 1.60 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Excelsior in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–7 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 76% and Excelsior 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 71% | Excelsior 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG and Excelsior 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.021 / defence 0.986 | Excelsior attack 0.797 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 ADO Den Haag games / 3 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 18%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 5.56. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.84 / Excelsior 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.021 / def 0.986 | Excelsior attack 0.797 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Excelsior xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 5 Excelsior.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 54% chance of winning, Excelsior a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
Record (6 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 2 | Excelsior 3W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.02) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.80x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.58
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.86
1.01
Excelsior xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
3%
35.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.01 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 17W 14D 10L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Excelsior's form line: 10W 12D 19L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 5D 13L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.71 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Excelsior in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Excelsior in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 10W 12D 19L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Excelsior away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.52 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 7-1 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
From 8 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Excelsior have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Excelsior 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for ADO Den Haag, 76% for Excelsior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ADO Den Haag and 90% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of ADO Den Haag's games and 76% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 90% of Excelsior's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Excelsior tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 0-5 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat ADO Den Haag 0-5 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG and Excelsior 1.01 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.01 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Excelsior attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 54% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 18%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 71%, Excelsior 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.