ADO Den Haag 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ADO Den Haag face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as ADO Den Haag welcome Den Bosch to Bingoal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag at Bingoal Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for ADO Den Haag, 1 for Den Bosch and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 66% versus Den Bosch 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 66% | Den Bosch 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.456 / defence 1.012 | Den Bosch attack 0.739 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.319. ADO Den Haag carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 ADO Den Haag games / 62 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 13%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 7.69. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 58% | xG ADO Den Haag 2.34 / Den Bosch 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.456 / def 1.012 | Den Bosch attack 0.739 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Den Bosch xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
ADO Den Haag 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 67% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): ADO Den Haag 3W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.46) and Den Bosch's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.99
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.33
0.98
Den Bosch xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
10%
10.40
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
78.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 0.98 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 26W 19D 17L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 14W 12D 36L from 62 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Venue Form
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 5D 21L from 30 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.13 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 26W 19D 17L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 12D 36L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Den Bosch away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.50 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 7, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 70%, Den Bosch 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ADO Den Haag and 60% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ADO Den Haag's games and 43% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 60% of Den Bosch's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Den Bosch tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 3-0 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 2.34 xG and Den Bosch 0.98 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.46 / defence 1.01 against Den Bosch attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 67% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 13%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 66%, Den Bosch 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.