Venezia 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Venezia, 0.70 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pisa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Pisa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Pisa 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.27 xG and Pisa 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.755 / defence 1.383 | Pisa attack 1.124 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.078. Venezia's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Venezia games / 43 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 24% | Pisa 47%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Pisa 2.13. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 29% | Draw 24% | Pisa 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Venezia 1.27 / Pisa 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.755 / def 1.383 | Pisa attack 1.124 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Pisa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Pisa kick off?
Venezia vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Venezia 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Venezia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Pisa part of?
Venezia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 29% chance of winning, Pisa a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Venezia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Pisa in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Venezia's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.12x) against Venezia's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
29%
3.45
24%
4.16
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.94
1.68
Pisa xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
18.45
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Venezia and 1.68 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 7W 10D 26L from 43 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 14L across 43 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 3W 5D 13L from 21 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.14 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 7W 10D 26L in their last 43 games (0.72 PPG), while Pisa have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.67 PPG; Pisa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Venezia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Venezia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Pisa 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Pisa?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Venezia) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 29% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 52% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Venezia's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Pisa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Pisa in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Pisa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.27 xG and Pisa 1.68 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.38 against Pisa attack 1.12 / defence 1.31, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 29% | Draw 24% | Pisa 47%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Pisa 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.