Venezia 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Venezia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Cosenza (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.80 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.370 / defence 0.936 | Cosenza attack 0.899 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.018. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Venezia games / 39 Cosenza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 60% | Cosenza 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Venezia 1.80 / Cosenza 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.370 / def 0.936 | Cosenza attack 0.899 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Venezia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cosenza xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cosenza kick off?
Venezia vs Cosenza kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cosenza?
Venezia 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Venezia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cosenza part of?
Venezia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 58% chance of winning, Cosenza a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Venezia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Venezia and Cosenza in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.37) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.90x) against Venezia's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.82
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.66
0.86
Cosenza xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
38.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Venezia and 0.86 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia's recent record stands at 14W 10D 16L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 16L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Venezia against 1.10 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 7D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.85 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cosenza away?
Venezia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.53 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Cosenza 4-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 63%, Cosenza 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Venezia) and 37% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Venezia's games and 47% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Venezia's recent games and 37% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 2, as Venezia and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.80 xG and Cosenza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.37 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 58% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 16%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 52%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.30 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.