Venezia 2-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Monza in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monza (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Monza arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Monza and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Monza — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 51% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 47% | Monza 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.64 xG and Monza 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.419 / defence 0.879 | Monza attack 1.191 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.057. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Venezia games / 15 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 27% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 4.00. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Monza 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 49% | Draw 27% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Venezia 1.64 / Monza 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.419 / def 0.879 | Monza attack 1.191 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Venezia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Monza xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Monza kick off?
Venezia vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Monza?
Venezia 2 - 0 Monza.
Where is Venezia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Monza part of?
Venezia vs Monza is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 49% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Venezia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Monza 0W.
What form are Venezia and Monza in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Monza (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.42x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (1.19x) against Venezia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
Monza xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
20.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Venezia and 1.11 for Monza, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 53 games, going 12W 19D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 0.92 PPG from 53 outings (12W 13D 28L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Venezia against 0.92 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 11W 5D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.92 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Monza in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 12W 19D 22L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 13D 28L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Monza away?
Venezia's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.46 PPG; Monza away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Monza 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Monza?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 42%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Venezia) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Venezia have failed to score in 35% of games; Monza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Venezia's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Monza tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Monza in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Monza 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.64 xG and Monza 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Monza landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.42 / defence 0.88 against Monza attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 49% | Draw 27% | Monza 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 47%, Monza 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.04 PPG, Monza 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.