Venezia 2-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Cremonese encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Venezia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 35). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Venezia have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Venezia have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Venezia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Venezia have won 0, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Venezia 0–1 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Venezia trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Cremonese trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Cremonese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 58% | Cremonese 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.54 xG and Cremonese 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.460 / defence 1.133 | Cremonese attack 0.822 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.198. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.460 — their 1.54 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 72 games and Cremonese's last 34.

Result probabilities: Venezia 45% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.24 | Draw 3.29 | Cremonese 3.98. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights