Venezia 4-0 Avellino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Venezia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Avellino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Avellino at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Avellino — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Venezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Venezia, 0 for Avellino and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Avellino in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus Avellino 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 63% | Avellino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.83 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.260 / defence 1.044 | Avellino attack 0.767 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.110. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Venezia games / 27 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 59% | Draw 24% | Avellino 17%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Avellino 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Avellino 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 59% | Draw 24% | Avellino 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Venezia 1.83 / Avellino 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.260 / def 1.044 | Avellino attack 0.767 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Venezia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Avellino xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Avellino kick off?
Venezia vs Avellino kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Avellino?
Venezia 4 - 0 Avellino.
Where is Venezia vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Avellino part of?
Venezia vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 59% chance of winning, Avellino a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Venezia and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Avellino?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Avellino 0W.
What form are Venezia and Avellino in?
Venezia (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Avellino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Venezia's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Avellino's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Avellino's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.08
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.72
0.89
Avellino xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
36.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Venezia and 0.89 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Avellino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 17W 6D 4L from 27 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 11L across 27 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Avellino heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 11W 0D 2L from 13 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.11 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avellino's away record stands at 2W 5D 6L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Avellino in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 games (2.11 PPG), while Avellino have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Avellino away?
Venezia's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.54 PPG; Avellino away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Venezia or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Avellino in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Avellino have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Venezia 4-0 Avellino.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Avellino?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 46%, Avellino 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Venezia) and 31% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Avellino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Venezia's recent matches and 54% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Venezia's recent games and 31% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Avellino tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Avellino in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Avellino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Avellino 4-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.83 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Avellino landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.26 / defence 1.04 against Avellino attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 59% | Draw 24% | Avellino 17%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 63%, Avellino 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Avellino's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.