Ternana 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Parma travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Parma — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ternana) versus 1.10 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Ternana have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Parma have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Ternana winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ternana and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 56% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Parma 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.19 xG and Parma 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.879 / defence 0.903 | Parma attack 0.879 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.018. Data: 61 Ternana games / 61 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 31% | Parma 25%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Parma 4.00. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 30% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 31% | Parma 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ternana 1.19 / Parma 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.879 / def 0.903 | Parma attack 0.879 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Ternana (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Parma xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Parma kick off?
Ternana vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Parma?
Ternana 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Ternana vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Parma part of?
Ternana vs Parma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 45% chance of winning, Parma a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ternana and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 3W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Ternana and Parma in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.88x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.26
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.00
0.81
Parma xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Ternana and 0.81 for Parma, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 15D 22L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 20W 22D 19L from 61 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.43 PPG, Parma on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Parma have gone 8W 12D 10L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.26 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Parma in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 24W 15D 22L in their last 61 games (1.43 PPG), while Parma have gone 20W 22D 19L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Parma away?
Ternana's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.67 PPG; Parma away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Ternana or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Parma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Parma?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 37%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Ternana) and 47% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Parma in 33%; Parma in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Ternana's recent matches and 47% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Ternana's recent games and 47% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Parma tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Parma in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Parma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.19 xG and Parma 0.81 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Parma attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 45% | Draw 31% | Parma 25%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Parma 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.43 PPG, Parma 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.