Ternana 0-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Brescia meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.69 xG and Brescia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Brescia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.711 / away 1.007. Data: 0 Ternana games / 0 Brescia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Brescia 41%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Brescia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Ternana's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Brescia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Ternana 0.69 / Brescia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Brescia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.711 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Brescia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Brescia xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Brescia kick off?
Ternana vs Brescia kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Ternana 0 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Ternana vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Brescia part of?
Ternana vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 25% chance of winning, Brescia a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Ternana and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Brescia in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.85) and Brescia's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.85x) against Ternana's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
25%
4.00
34%
2.96
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.68
0.98
Brescia xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 18.4 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Ternana and 0.98 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Pre-Season
Brescia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ternana
3
Draws
3
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Brescia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Brescia 0-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Ternana 0-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.69 xG and Brescia 0.98 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Brescia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Brescia 41%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.