Ternana 0-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ternana and Benevento meet at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Serie B appearances (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Benevento — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 62% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Benevento 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.22 xG and Benevento 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.125 / defence 1.107 | Benevento attack 0.932 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.192. Data: 16 Ternana games / 16 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 35% | Draw 28% | Benevento 36%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Benevento 43%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 35% | Draw 28% | Benevento 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ternana 1.22 / Benevento 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.125 / def 1.107 | Benevento attack 0.932 / def 1.097 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Benevento (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Benevento xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Benevento kick off?
Ternana vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Benevento?
Ternana 0 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Ternana vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Benevento part of?
Ternana vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 35% chance of winning, Benevento a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ternana and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Benevento in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ternana's attack at 1.12x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.93x) against Ternana's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.51
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.45
1.23
Benevento xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ternana and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ternana and 1.23 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 8W 4D 4L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Ternana against 1.75 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benevento in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Benevento in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Benevento have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Benevento away?
Ternana's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.86 PPG; Benevento away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Ternana or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Benevento in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Ternana 2-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Benevento?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 57%, Benevento 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ternana) and 14% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Benevento in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ternana's recent matches and 43% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ternana's recent games and 14% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Benevento tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Benevento in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Ternana 0-2 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.22 xG and Benevento 1.23 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Benevento attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 35% | Draw 28% | Benevento 36%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Benevento 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Benevento's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.38 PPG, Benevento 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.