Sudtirol 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Bari in Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final. Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Bari have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bari's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bari are 0.80 PPG clear of Sudtirol in recent Serie B fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.1 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Bari 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 48% | Bari 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.17 xG and Bari 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.708 / defence 1.079 | Bari attack 0.899 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.076. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 76 Sudtirol games / 76 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Bari 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Bari 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sudtirol dominate the H2H record, yet Bari are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bari (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Bari 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Relegation Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Bari 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Sudtirol 1.17 / Bari 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.708 / def 1.079 | Bari attack 0.899 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Bari kick off?
Sudtirol vs Bari kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Sudtirol vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Bari part of?
Sudtirol vs Bari is a Relegation Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Bari a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sudtirol and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
Record (9 meetings): Sudtirol 4W | Draws 3 | Bari 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Bari (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.71) and Bari's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.90x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.11
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Bari xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.04 for Bari, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 77 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 20W 28D 29L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 20W 29D 28L from 77 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.16 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (11W 14D 13L).
On the road, Bari have gone 6W 14D 18L from 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.03 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 28D 29L in their last 77 games (1.14 PPG), while Bari have gone 20W 29D 28L in their last 77 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Bari away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.24 PPG; Bari away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
4
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
From 10 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Bari?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 63%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 42% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sudtirol's games and 47% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Bari tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Relegation Play-offs - Final, as Sudtirol and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.17 xG and Bari 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Bari attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 32% | Bari 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 48%, Bari 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Bari 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.