Sassuolo 2-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Modena at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sassuolo's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Modena's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 7D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Sassuolo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 69%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 62% and Modena 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 53% | Modena 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sassuolo surrender their half-time lead 69% of the time, while Modena have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.85 xG and Modena 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.286 / defence 1.193 | Modena attack 1.041 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.182. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.286 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 9 games and Modena's last 47.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.23 | Draw 3.83 | Modena 3.45. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 10 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Sassuolo 1.85 / Modena 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.286 / def 1.193 | Modena attack 1.041 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Modena xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs Modena FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs Modena kick off?
Sassuolo vs Modena kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Modena?
Sassuolo 2 - 0 Modena.
Where is Sassuolo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Modena part of?
Sassuolo vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 45% chance of winning, Modena a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sassuolo and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sassuolo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 9 games and Modena's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.83
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.32
1.47
Modena xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
5%
21.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.47 for Modena, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 12W 21D 14L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.02 PPG, Modena on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 7W 6D 10L from their last 23 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 14D 5L across their last 23 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Modena in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Modena
Blended
Sassuolo (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Sassuolo vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and Modena in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Modena have gone 12W 21D 14L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Modena away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.17 PPG; Modena away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
0
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Modena?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 2, Modena have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Modena 1-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Modena?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sassuolo at 61%, Modena at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sassuolo) and 52% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sassuolo's games and 74% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sassuolo and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sassuolo's recent games and 52% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 61% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Modena 2-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.85 xG and Modena 1.47 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Modena landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.29 / defence 1.19 against Modena attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 45% | Draw 26% | Modena 29%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 53%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.02 PPG, Modena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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