Sampdoria 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Venezia encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Venezia travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Sampdoria — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Sampdoria at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sampdoria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Venezia away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sampdoria have won 1, Venezia 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Sampdoria 1–3 Venezia — a Venezia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sampdoria trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Venezia trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Venezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 39% | Venezia 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sampdoria surrender their half-time lead 62% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.917 / defence 1.091 | Venezia attack 1.435 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.128. Venezia have an above-average attack rating of 1.435, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 67 games and Venezia's last 29.

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 24% | Draw 25% | Venezia 51%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.14 | Draw 4.04 | Venezia 1.96. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 80% (last 10 away games).

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