Sampdoria 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reggiana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Reggiana meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Reggiana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sampdoria 1W, Reggiana 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 67% versus Reggiana 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 53% | Reggiana 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.12 xG and Reggiana 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.996 / defence 1.156 | Reggiana attack 0.955 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Data: 36 Sampdoria games / 36 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Reggiana 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 80% | Reggiana 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 30% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Sampdoria 1.12 / Reggiana 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.996 / def 1.156 | Reggiana attack 0.955 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Reggiana xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Reggiana kick off?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Sampdoria vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Reggiana part of?
Sampdoria vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 30% chance of winning, Reggiana a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sampdoria and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.95x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.21
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.42
1.30
Reggiana xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.30 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 9D 13L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.28 PPG from 36 outings (10W 16D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.28 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sampdoria's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.03 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 games (1.42 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 10W 16D 10L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.22 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Reggiana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Reggiana have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Reggiana 1-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Reggiana?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 67%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sampdoria) and 50% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 33%; Reggiana in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sampdoria's games and 44% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sampdoria's recent games and 50% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Reggiana tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.12 xG and Reggiana 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Reggiana attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 30% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 39%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 53%, Reggiana 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.42 PPG, Reggiana 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.