Sampdoria 1-0 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.20 for Padova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sampdoria 0W, Padova 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Padova — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 62% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 42% | Padova 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.69 xG and Padova 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.098 / defence 1.103 | Padova attack 0.925 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.060. Padova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Sampdoria games / 24 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 51% | Draw 26% | Padova 24%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Padova 4.17. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 60% | Padova 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 51% | Draw 26% | Padova 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Sampdoria 1.69 / Padova 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.098 / def 1.103 | Padova attack 0.925 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Padova xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Padova kick off?
Sampdoria vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Padova?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Padova.
Where is Sampdoria vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Padova part of?
Sampdoria vs Padova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 51% chance of winning, Padova a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sampdoria and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Padova?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 1 | Padova 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Padova in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Padova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.10) and Padova's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.93x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.92
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.77
1.08
Padova xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.08 for Padova, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 6W 8D 10L from 24 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.21 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Padova's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Padova in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Padova have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Padova away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.58 PPG; Padova away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Padova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Padova?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Padova see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 58%, Padova 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sampdoria) and 42% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 33%; Padova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 42% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sampdoria's recent games and 42% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Padova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.69 xG and Padova 1.08 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Padova attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 51% | Draw 26% | Padova 24%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 42%, Padova 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Padova's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.08 PPG, Padova 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.