Reggina 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reggina vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 31 as Reggina welcome Cosenza to Stadio Oreste Granillo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggina's home record at Stadio Oreste Granillo: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Reggina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reggina, 0 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Reggina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Reggina in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 38% versus Cosenza 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggina 34% | Cosenza 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.33 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 0.859 / defence 1.124 | Cosenza attack 0.717 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.086. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Reggina games / 29 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 44% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 21%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Cosenza 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 30% | Cosenza 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 44% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Reggina 1.33 / Cosenza 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 0.859 / def 1.124 | Cosenza attack 0.717 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Reggina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cosenza xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Cosenza kick off?
Reggina vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Cosenza?
Reggina 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Reggina vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Cosenza part of?
Reggina vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 44% chance of winning, Cosenza a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reggina and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Reggina and Cosenza in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reggina's attack rating (0.86) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
44%
2.29
35%
2.85
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.20
0.88
Cosenza xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Reggina and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Reggina and 0.88 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Reggina have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 11W 6D 12L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 5W 9D 15L from 29 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reggina have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (7W 1D 6L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 0W 6D 8L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reggina are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.90 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 5W 9D 15L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Cosenza away?
Reggina's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.57 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggina and Cosenza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Reggina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reggina's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2023, when Cosenza 2-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Cosenza?
Reggina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 43%, Cosenza 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggina) and 43% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Reggina have failed to score in 36% of games; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Reggina's recent matches and 64% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggina's recent games and 43% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Cosenza tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.33 xG and Cosenza 0.88 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Cosenza attack 0.72 / defence 1.48, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 44% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 21%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 34%, Cosenza 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.