Reggiana 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Reggiana take on Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Palermo have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Reggiana against 1.40 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Palermo edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Reggiana 0–2 Palermo — a Palermo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 47% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 37% | Palermo 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Palermo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.806 / defence 1.002 | Palermo attack 0.924 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.102. Data: built from Reggiana's last 60 games and Palermo's last 60.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 31% | Draw 37% | Palermo 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.21 | Draw 2.73 | Palermo 3.11. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Reggiana's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reggiana 30% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 31% | Draw 37% | Palermo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Reggiana 1.00 / Palermo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.806 / def 1.002 | Palermo attack 0.924 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Palermo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Palermo kick off?
Reggiana vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Reggiana 2 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Reggiana vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Palermo part of?
Reggiana vs Palermo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 31% chance of winning, Palermo a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggiana and Palermo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Reggiana vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.81) and Palermo's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.92x) against Reggiana's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 60 games and Palermo's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.02
1.02
Palermo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.02 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Reggiana have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 24D 20L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 22W 16D 22L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Reggiana against 1.37 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reggiana have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 29 home games (6W 15D 8L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 9W 9D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggiana are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Palermo
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Palermo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Palermo in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 16W 24D 20L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Palermo have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.14 PPG; Palermo away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palermo in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Palermo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Palermo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Reggiana 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 48%, Palermo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Reggiana) and 45% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Reggiana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Palermo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Palermo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reggiana's recent matches and 59% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reggiana and Palermo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Reggiana's recent games and 45% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Palermo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Reggiana's recent matches and 72% of Palermo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Palermo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Palermo 2-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Reggiana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Palermo attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 31% | Draw 37% | Palermo 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 37%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.20 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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