Reggiana 1-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Catanzaro.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Catanzaro at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Reggiana — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana at home: 1W 6D 2L from their last 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Catanzaro stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Catanzaro's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 3L across their last 9 road games (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggiana at 1.30 PPG versus Catanzaro's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Catanzaro in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 61% versus Catanzaro 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 50% | Catanzaro 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.04 xG and Catanzaro 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.818 / defence 1.114 | Catanzaro attack 0.883 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.173. Data: built from Reggiana's last 18 games and Catanzaro's last 18.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 32% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.15 | Draw 3.27 | Catanzaro 2.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Catanzaro at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 78% (last 9 home games) | Catanzaro 56% (last 9 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 32% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Reggiana 1.04 / Catanzaro 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.818 / def 1.114 | Catanzaro attack 0.883 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Catanzaro xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Catanzaro FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Catanzaro kick off?
Reggiana vs Catanzaro kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Catanzaro?
Reggiana 1 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Reggiana vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Catanzaro part of?
Reggiana vs Catanzaro is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 32% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Reggiana and Catanzaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Reggiana vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Catanzaro's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 18 games and Catanzaro's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
32%
3.15
31%
3.27
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Catanzaro xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Catanzaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.15 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 8D 6L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Catanzaro sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Catanzaro carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Reggiana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 1W 6D 2L across their last 9 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Catanzaro have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 9 away games (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.56 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Catanzaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Catanzaro Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.00 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Catanzaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Catanzaro in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Reggiana's record when hosting Catanzaro specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
3
Draws
1
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Catanzaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Catanzaro?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 2, Catanzaro have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Catanzaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Catanzaro 2-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Catanzaro?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Reggiana at 78%, Catanzaro at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Reggiana) and 56% (Catanzaro).
On the defensive side: Catanzaro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Catanzaro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Catanzaro matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Reggiana's games and 56% of Catanzaro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Catanzaro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Reggiana's recent games and 56% of Catanzaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Catanzaro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Reggiana's recent matches and 89% of Catanzaro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Catanzaro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Catanzaro 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Catanzaro 1.15 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Catanzaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Catanzaro attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 32% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 50%, Catanzaro 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Catanzaro's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 19
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →