Pisa 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ternana at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Ternana.

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Match Analysis

Pisa host Ternana at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Pisa — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Pisa at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ternana stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ternana away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.30 PPG versus Ternana's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Pisa have won 2, Ternana 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Pisa 1–1 Ternana — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Ternana in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Ternana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 46% | Ternana 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pisa surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ternana surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.031 / defence 1.114 | Ternana attack 1.153 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.248. Data: built from Pisa's last 66 games and Ternana's last 66.

Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 27% | Ternana 38%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.87 | Draw 3.74 | Ternana 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 70% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 80% (last 10 away games).

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