Pisa 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pisa, 0.90 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pisa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Modena in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Pisa 1W, Modena 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 45% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.55 xG and Modena 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.985 / defence 1.074 | Modena attack 1.022 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.224. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Pisa games / 64 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Modena 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Pisa 1.55 / Modena 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.985 / def 1.074 | Modena attack 1.022 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Pisa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Modena xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Modena kick off?
Pisa vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Modena?
Pisa 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Pisa vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Modena part of?
Pisa vs Modena is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 41% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pisa and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Pisa and Modena in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Modena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.98x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.02x) against Pisa's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.54
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.34
Modena xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pisa and 1.34 for Modena, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 23D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Pisa against 1.30 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 10W 10D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.09 points per game from 32 outings (9W 8D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Modena in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Modena away?
Pisa's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.25 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
4
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Modena have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Pisa, 66% for Modena — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 59% (Modena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Pisa's games and 66% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Pisa's matches and 59% of Modena's.
Do Pisa and Modena tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Modena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Modena finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.55 xG and Modena 1.34 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 45%, Modena 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.