Pisa 2-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Bari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 5D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.80 PPG versus Bari's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Bari 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Bari in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 68% and Bari 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 57% | Bari 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.19 xG and Bari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.282 / defence 0.920 | Bari attack 0.961 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.110. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bari's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Pisa games / 54 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 38% | Draw 34% | Bari 28%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 70% | Bari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 38% | Draw 34% | Bari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Pisa 1.19 / Bari 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.282 / def 0.920 | Bari attack 0.961 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Pisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Bari kick off?
Pisa vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Bari?
Pisa 2 - 0 Bari.
Where is Pisa vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Bari part of?
Pisa vs Bari is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 38% chance of winning, Bari a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pisa and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 3 | Bari 1W.
What form are Pisa and Bari in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bari (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
38%
2.61
34%
2.96
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.17
0.98
Bari xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pisa and 0.98 for Bari, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 18D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.20 PPG from 54 outings (13W 26D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.44 PPG, Bari on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 11W 11D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (4W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.13 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bari in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Bari in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 20W 18D 16L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 26D 15L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Bari away?
Pisa's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.69 PPG; Bari away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 73%, Bari at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pisa) and 42% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Pisa's games and 58% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Pisa's recent games and 42% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Bari tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bari in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Bari 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.19 xG and Bari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.28 / defence 0.92 against Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 38% | Draw 34% | Bari 28%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 57%, Bari 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.44 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.