Pisa 2-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Alessandria at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.43 xG and Alessandria 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.964 / defence 1.013 | Alessandria attack 1.119 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 0.999. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Pisa games / 1 Alessandria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Alessandria 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Pisa 1.43 / Alessandria 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.964 / def 1.013 | Alessandria attack 1.119 / def 1.516 | league avg home 0.979 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Alessandria xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Alessandria kick off?
Pisa vs Alessandria kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Alessandria?
Pisa 2 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Pisa vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Alessandria part of?
Pisa vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 44% chance of winning, Alessandria a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pisa and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Alessandria in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Alessandria (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.81
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.56
1.13
Alessandria xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pisa and 1.13 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alessandria, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 3.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. Alessandria's attacking output running into Pisa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Alessandria in 100%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Alessandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Pisa or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Alessandria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Alessandria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Alessandria?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pisa's recent matches and 100% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pisa's recent games and 100% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Alessandria tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Alessandria 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.43 xG and Alessandria 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alessandria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Alessandria attack 1.12 / defence 1.52, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 30%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 0%, Alessandria 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Alessandria managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.