Pescara 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Reggiana at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia to take on Pescara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pescara — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia this season: 1W 4D 4L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reggiana are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pescara register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Reggiana in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Pescara in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 75% and Reggiana 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 62% | Reggiana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.21 xG and Reggiana 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.844 / defence 1.299 | Reggiana attack 1.002 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.074. Data: 16 Pescara games / 54 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 31% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 40%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggiana are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 67% | Reggiana 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 31% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Pescara 1.21 / Reggiana 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.844 / def 1.299 | Reggiana attack 1.002 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Reggiana xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Reggiana kick off?
Pescara vs Reggiana kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Reggiana?
Pescara 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Pescara vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Reggiana part of?
Pescara vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 31% chance of winning, Reggiana a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pescara and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Reggiana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pescara and Reggiana in?
Pescara (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pescara's attack rating (0.84) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.41
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.61
1.40
Reggiana xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pescara and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pescara and 1.40 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pescara come into this having played 16 games, going 1W 7D 8L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Pescara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pescara's home form reads 1W 4D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pescara are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Reggiana in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 1W 7D 8L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 0.88 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pescara or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Reggiana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pescara
0
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Reggiana 1-3 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Reggiana?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 62%, Reggiana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pescara) and 62% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Pescara's games and 62% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pescara's matches and 62% of Reggiana's.
Do Pescara and Reggiana tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pescara defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.21 xG and Reggiana 1.40 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 31% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 40%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 62%, Reggiana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.