Perugia 0-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Modena at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Perugia 1.40 PPG, Modena 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Perugia have won 0, Modena 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 42% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Perugia 42% | Modena 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.89 xG and Modena 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 1.118 / defence 1.097 | Modena attack 1.000 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.006. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Perugia games / 31 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 55% | Draw 24% | Modena 21%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Modena 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Perugia (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 55% | Draw 24% | Modena 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Perugia 1.89 / Modena 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 1.118 / def 1.097 | Modena attack 1.000 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Perugia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Modena xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Modena kick off?
Perugia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Modena?
Perugia 0 - 1 Modena.
Where is Perugia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Modena part of?
Perugia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 55% chance of winning, Modena a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Perugia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Perugia and Modena in?
Perugia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Perugia's attack rating (1.12) and Modena's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.17
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
Modena xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
3%
31.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Perugia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Perugia and 1.10 for Modena, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Modena?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 7D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (11W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.10 PPG, Modena on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Modena in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Modena have gone 11W 6D 14L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Modena away?
Perugia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.33 PPG; Modena away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Perugia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Modena in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Perugia
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Perugia 0-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 47%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Perugia) and 60% (Modena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games; Modena in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Perugia's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Perugia's matches and 60% of Modena's.
Do Perugia and Modena tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Modena in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Perugia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Perugia 0-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.89 xG and Modena 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Perugia fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Modena attack 1.00 / defence 1.44, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 55% | Draw 24% | Modena 21%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 42%, Modena 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.10 PPG, Modena 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.