Perugia 2-3 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Perugia host Ascoli at Stadio Renato Curi in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Perugia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie B matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 3.00 PPG (Perugia) versus 3.00 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Perugia's 0% and Ascoli's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.21 xG and Ascoli 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | Ascoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.028. Data: 1 Perugia games / 1 Ascoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Perugia 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Ascoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 1.21 / Ascoli 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | Ascoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Perugia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ascoli xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Ascoli kick off?
Perugia vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Ascoli?
Perugia 2 - 3 Ascoli.
Where is Perugia vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Ascoli part of?
Perugia vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 41% chance of winning, Ascoli a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Ascoli in?
Perugia (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Ascoli (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.47
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.00
Ascoli xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Perugia and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Perugia and 1.00 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Perugia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 3.00 PPG, Ascoli on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Perugia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ascoli in 0%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Ascoli in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Perugia or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ascoli in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Perugia's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Ascoli 1-0 Perugia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Perugia's recent matches and 0% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Perugia's recent games and 0% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Ascoli tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Perugia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Perugia 2-3 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.21 xG and Ascoli 1.00 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ascoli outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Ascoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 41% | Draw 29% | Ascoli 30%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 0%, Ascoli 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 3.00 PPG, Ascoli 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ascoli scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.