Parma 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Pisa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Parma. A 0.80 PPG lead over Pisa (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Parma have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Pisa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 48% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.174 / defence 0.901 | Pisa attack 0.961 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Data: 62 Parma games / 62 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 4.00. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 80% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Parma 1.47 / Pisa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.174 / def 0.901 | Pisa attack 0.961 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Pisa kick off?
Parma vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pisa?
Parma 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Parma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pisa part of?
Parma vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 46% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Parma and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
Record (5 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 3 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Parma and Pisa in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.17) and Pisa's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.96x) against Parma's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.47
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Parma xG
Total xG
2.51
1.04
Pisa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Parma and 1.04 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 32W 15D 15L from 62 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 21L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 18W 7D 6L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 8W 13D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Pisa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 32W 15D 15L in their last 62 games (1.79 PPG), while Pisa have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Pisa away?
Parma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.97 PPG; Pisa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Parma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Parma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Parma
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pisa?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 48%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Parma) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pisa in 36%; Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Parma's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Parma's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Pisa tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Pisa in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.47 xG and Pisa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 46% | Draw 29% | Pisa 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.