Parma 0-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Parma take on Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lecce make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecce's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Lecce have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Parma, 1.50 for Lecce — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Parma have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lecce in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 57% versus Lecce 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 40% | Lecce 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.13 xG and Lecce 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.078 / defence 1.170 | Lecce attack 0.898 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.086. Data: 30 Parma games / 30 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 32% | Draw 36% | Lecce 32%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Lecce 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Parma 70% | Lecce 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 32% | Draw 36% | Lecce 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Parma 1.13 / Lecce 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.078 / def 1.170 | Lecce attack 0.898 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Lecce xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Lecce kick off?
Parma vs Lecce kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Lecce?
Parma 0 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Parma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Lecce part of?
Parma vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 32% chance of winning, Lecce a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Parma and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Parma and Lecce in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.08x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.90x) against Parma's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Parma xG
Total xG
2.27
1.14
Lecce xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Parma and 1.14 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma's recent record stands at 8W 14D 8L from 30 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 3L across 30 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Parma heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Parma have managed 4W 7D 4L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 8D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.63 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lecce in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Lecce in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 8W 14D 8L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 13D 3L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.27 PPG; Lecce away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Parma or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lecce in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lecce won 4-0 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
3
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Lecce have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Lecce 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 60%, Lecce 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Parma and 33% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 33%; Lecce in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Parma's games and 53% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Parma's recent games and 33% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Lecce tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lecce in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 31, as Parma and Lecce drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.13 xG and Lecce 1.14 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Lecce attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 32% | Draw 36% | Lecce 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 40%, Lecce 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lecce's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.