Parma 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cagliari at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cagliari have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.50 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Parma, 0 for Cagliari and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 48% versus Cagliari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 38% | Cagliari 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.92 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.919 / defence 0.887 | Cagliari attack 0.880 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.977. Data: 71 Parma games / 33 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Cagliari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cagliari's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 37% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Parma 0.92 / Cagliari 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.919 / def 0.887 | Cagliari attack 0.880 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Parma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cagliari xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?
Parma vs Cagliari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Parma vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cagliari part of?
Parma vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 37% chance of winning, Cagliari a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Parma and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Parma and Cagliari in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
37%
2.73
36%
2.81
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Parma xG
Total xG
1.69
0.76
Cagliari xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 14.1 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Parma and 0.76 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma's recent record stands at 24W 25D 22L from 71 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 17W 27D 27L across 71 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.37 PPG, Cagliari on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Parma have managed 13W 11D 11L from 35 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 5W 15D 15L across 35 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.03 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 24W 25D 22L in their last 71 games (1.37 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 17W 27D 27L in their last 71 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cagliari away?
Parma's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.43 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Parma or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
4
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cagliari have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Parma 1-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 49%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Parma) and 40% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma have failed to score in 29% of games; Cagliari in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Parma's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Parma's recent games and 40% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cagliari tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.92 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 37% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 28%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 38%, Cagliari 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.37 PPG, Cagliari 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.