Parma 2-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Parma welcome Brescia to Stadio Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Parma have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season.
Brescia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brescia have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Parma have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Parma, 2 for Brescia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 49% versus Brescia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 40% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.54 xG and Brescia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.008 / defence 0.888 | Brescia attack 1.010 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.028. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Parma games / 73 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Brescia 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 4.76. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Brescia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Parma 1.54 / Brescia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.008 / def 0.888 | Brescia attack 1.010 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Parma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Brescia xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Brescia kick off?
Parma vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Brescia?
Parma 2 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Parma vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Brescia part of?
Parma vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 50% chance of winning, Brescia a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Parma and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Parma and Brescia in?
Parma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Parma's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.43
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Parma xG
Total xG
2.46
0.92
Brescia xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
22.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Parma and 0.92 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 73 games, going 25W 26D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.34 PPG from 73 outings (24W 26D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.38 PPG, Brescia on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 13W 11D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.23 points per game from 35 outings (10W 13D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.14 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Brescia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 25W 26D 22L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Brescia have gone 24W 26D 23L in their last 73 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Brescia away?
Parma's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.43 PPG; Brescia away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Parma or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Brescia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Parma's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Parma
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Parma 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Brescia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 51%, Brescia 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Parma) and 40% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Parma's recent matches and 51% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Parma's recent games and 40% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Brescia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brescia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Brescia 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.54 xG and Brescia 0.92 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brescia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 1.31, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Brescia 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 40%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.38 PPG, Brescia 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.