Palermo 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 36). Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Palermo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sudtirol have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Palermo's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Palermo, 1 for Sudtirol and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2024, ended Palermo 3–1 Sudtirol — a Palermo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 57% versus Sudtirol 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 53% | Sudtirol 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palermo surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.83 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.224 / defence 1.078 | Sudtirol attack 1.029 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Data: built from Palermo's last 72 games and Sudtirol's last 72.
Result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.08 | Draw 3.91 | Sudtirol 3.80. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.83 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Palermo's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palermo 50% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Palermo 1.83 / Sudtirol 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.224 / def 1.078 | Sudtirol attack 1.029 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Palermo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sudtirol xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo 1 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 48% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.22x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.03x) against Palermo's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 72 games and Sudtirol's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.91
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.14
1.32
Sudtirol xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
4%
23.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Palermo and 1.32 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 72 games, going 27W 19D 26L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (22W 19D 31L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Palermo against 1.18 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 15W 8D 13L across their last 36 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 36 away games (10W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.24 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
Palermo (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Palermo vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 27W 19D 26L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 22W 19D 31L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Palermo and Sudtirol, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Palermo) and 53% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Palermo's recent games and 53% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Palermo's recent matches and 67% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.83 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palermo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 53%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.39 PPG, Sudtirol 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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