Palermo 1-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 27% versus Parma 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 36% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.07 xG and Parma 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.949 / defence 1.120 | Parma attack 0.938 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.110. Data: 11 Palermo games / 49 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 33% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Palermo 1.07 / Parma 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.949 / def 1.120 | Parma attack 0.938 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Parma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Parma kick off?
Palermo vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Parma?
Palermo 1 - 0 Parma.
Where is Palermo vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Parma part of?
Palermo vs Parma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 31% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palermo and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Parma in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Parma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.95x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.10
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.23
1.17
Parma xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Palermo and 1.17 for Parma, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 3W 3D 5L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palermo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Parma have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Parma's season.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.45 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Parma in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Parma in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Parma have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Palermo or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Parma in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Palermo's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 40%, Parma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Palermo) and 40% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Parma in 40%; Palermo have failed to score in 40% of games; Parma in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palermo's recent matches and 40% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Palermo's recent games and 40% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Parma tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Parma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Parma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Parma 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.07 xG and Parma 1.17 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Parma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Parma attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 31% | Draw 32% | Parma 36%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 36%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Parma's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Palermo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.