Palermo vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Empoli have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Palermo, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 40% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 45% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.80 xG and Empoli 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.114 / defence 0.796 | Empoli attack 0.943 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Palermo's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Palermo games / 40 Empoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palermo 58% | Draw 25% | Empoli 17%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Empoli 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 58% | Draw 25% | Empoli 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Palermo 1.80 / Empoli 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.114 / def 0.796 | Empoli attack 0.943 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Palermo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Empoli xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Empoli kick off?
Palermo vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Empoli part of?
Palermo vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 58% chance of winning, Empoli a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Palermo and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Palermo and Empoli in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.03
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.69
0.89
Empoli xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
35.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Palermo and 0.89 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 22W 11D 7L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 10W 14D 16L from 40 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 2.53 PPG from 19 outings (15W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 3D 12L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Empoli away?
Palermo's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.53 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Palermo or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Empoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Palermo 3-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Empoli?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 26%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palermo) and 58% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 68% of their matches; Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Palermo's recent matches and 47% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palermo's recent games and 58% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Empoli tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Empoli in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.