Padova 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Padova and Sampdoria meet at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Padova have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Euganeo this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Padova, 1.10 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Padova have seen both teams score in 71% of their games, Sampdoria in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 56% versus Sampdoria 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 38% | Sampdoria 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.21 xG and Sampdoria 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.810 / defence 1.293 | Sampdoria attack 0.771 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.063. Data: 16 Padova games / 54 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 38% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 31%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Sampdoria 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Padova at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Padova 71% | Sampdoria 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 38% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Padova 1.21 / Sampdoria 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.810 / def 1.293 | Sampdoria attack 0.771 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Padova (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sampdoria xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Sampdoria kick off?
Padova vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Sampdoria?
Padova 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Padova vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Sampdoria part of?
Padova vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 38% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Padova and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sampdoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Sampdoria in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.77x) against Padova's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.23
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Padova xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Sampdoria xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Padova and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Padova and 1.06 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Padova's recent record stands at 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 9L across 16 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Padova by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Padova have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 0.94 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Sampdoria away?
Padova's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 71%, Sampdoria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Padova) and 29% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Padova have failed to score in 29% of games; Sampdoria in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Padova's games and 57% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Padova's recent games and 29% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 17, as Padova and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.21 xG and Sampdoria 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Sampdoria attack 0.77 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 38% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 31%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 38%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.