Padova 1-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Padova) versus 1.40 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 56% versus Carrarese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 44% | Carrarese 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.891 / defence 1.250 | Carrarese attack 1.094 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Padova games / 61 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Carrarese 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 80% | Carrarese 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Padova 1.57 / Carrarese 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.891 / def 1.250 | Carrarese attack 1.094 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Padova (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Carrarese xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Carrarese kick off?
Padova vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Padova 1 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Padova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Carrarese part of?
Padova vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 40% chance of winning, Carrarese a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Padova and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Padova and Carrarese in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.89) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Padova xG
Total xG
3.03
1.46
Carrarese xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Padova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Padova and 1.46 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Padova have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 6W 8D 9L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 7W 9D 7L from 23 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.13 PPG, Carrarese on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.35 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Carrarese away?
Padova's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Padova or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Carrarese in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Padova 1-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Carrarese?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Padova at 73%, Carrarese at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Padova) and 73% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Padova's games and 82% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Padova's matches and 73% of Carrarese's.
Do Padova and Carrarese tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Carrarese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.89 / defence 1.25 against Carrarese attack 1.09 / defence 1.34, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 44%, Carrarese 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.13 PPG, Carrarese 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.