Cosenza 4-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Venezia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cosenza and Venezia meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cosenza have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Cosenza have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cosenza are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Venezia edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Cosenza 1–1 Venezia — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 48% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Venezia 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cosenza surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.01 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.932 / defence 0.990 | Venezia attack 1.043 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.183. Data: built from Cosenza's last 58 games and Venezia's last 58.

Result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 31% | Venezia 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.42 | Draw 3.22 | Venezia 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cosenza 60% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 40% (last 10 away games).

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