Cosenza 1-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41%, yet in-form Frosinone provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Frosinone at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cosenza — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Frosinone — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Frosinone in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Frosinone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.39 xG and Frosinone 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.001 / defence 1.077 | Frosinone attack 1.015 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Data: 48 Cosenza games / 48 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 33%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Frosinone 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cosenza 1.39 / Frosinone 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.001 / def 1.077 | Frosinone attack 1.015 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Frosinone xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Frosinone kick off?
Cosenza vs Frosinone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Cosenza vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Frosinone part of?
Cosenza vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Frosinone a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cosenza and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.81
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.60
1.21
Frosinone xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.21 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 13D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.65 PPG from 48 outings (22W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 11W 3D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.52 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 22W 13D 13L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Frosinone away?
Cosenza's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.50 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Frosinone in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Frosinone 2-2 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 46% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Frosinone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 46% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.39 xG and Frosinone 1.21 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Frosinone attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 33%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.