Monza 1-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Crotone in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Monza (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Monza's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at U-Power Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crotone's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Monza's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Monza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crotone in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monza, 0 for Crotone and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Crotone half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 57% versus Crotone 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 50% | Crotone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 2.25 xG and Crotone 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.345 / defence 1.084 | Crotone attack 0.771 / defence 1.606. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.086. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.606 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Monza games / 30 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 65% | Draw 23% | Crotone 11%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Crotone 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Monza (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | Crotone 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 65% | Draw 23% | Crotone 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Monza 2.25 / Crotone 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.345 / def 1.084 | Crotone attack 0.771 / def 1.606 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Monza (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Crotone xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Crotone kick off?
Monza vs Crotone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Crotone?
Monza 1 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Monza vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Crotone part of?
Monza vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 65% chance of winning, Crotone a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Monza and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | Crotone 0W.
What form are Monza and Crotone in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.34) and Crotone's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crotone's attack (0.77x) against Monza's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.32
11%
8.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Monza xG
Total xG
3.16
0.91
Crotone xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
8.79
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
83.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Monza and 0.91 for Crotone, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Crotone?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Monza have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 15W 9D 6L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Crotone's form line: 3W 10D 17L from 30 games, 0.63 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crotone.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monza have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 3D 12L from 15 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.03 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Crotone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Crotone in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Crotone have gone 3W 10D 17L in their last 30 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Crotone away?
Monza's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.20 PPG; Crotone away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Monza or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Crotone in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Monza
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Monza 1-0 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Crotone?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 53%, Crotone 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Monza) and 53% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Crotone in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Monza's games and 60% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Monza's recent games and 53% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Crotone tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crotone in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Crotone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Crotone 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 2.25 xG and Crotone 0.91 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monza fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Crotone landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.34 / defence 1.08 against Crotone attack 0.77 / defence 1.61, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 65% | Draw 23% | Crotone 11%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 50%, Crotone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crotone's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.