Modena 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Modena take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Modena) versus 1.40 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Modena, 0 for Sudtirol and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Sudtirol trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 54% versus Sudtirol 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 46% | Sudtirol 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.66 xG and Sudtirol 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.830 / defence 0.917 | Sudtirol attack 0.749 / defence 0.672. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.029. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.672 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Modena games / 37 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 43% | Sudtirol 30%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.70 | Draw 2.33 | Sudtirol 3.33. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Modena's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.37 combined xG gives a 16% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 40% | Sudtirol 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 27% | Draw 43% | Sudtirol 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 26% | xG Modena 0.66 / Sudtirol 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.830 / def 0.917 | Sudtirol attack 0.749 / def 0.672 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Sudtirol xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Modena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Modena 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Modena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sudtirol part of?
Modena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 27% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 30% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Modena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.66. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 27.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-0 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
43%
2.35
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Modena xG
Total xG
1.37
0.71
Sudtirol xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.35
43%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.79
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.5 | 18.0 | 6.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 27.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Modena and 0.71 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (14W 16D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 6W 8D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 16D 7L in their last 37 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.44 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Modena or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
4
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sudtirol?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Sudtirol 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Modena and 17% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 56%; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games; Sudtirol in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 22% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Modena's recent games and 17% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.66 xG and Sudtirol 0.71 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 0.75 / defence 0.67, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 27% | Draw 43% | Sudtirol 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Sudtirol 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.