Modena 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Cosenza meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cosenza have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Cosenza 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.10 xG and Cosenza 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.002 / defence 0.945 | Cosenza attack 0.621 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: 61 Modena games / 61 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Cosenza 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Cosenza 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Modena 1.10 / Cosenza 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.002 / def 0.945 | Cosenza attack 0.621 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Modena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Cosenza xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Cosenza kick off?
Modena vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Modena 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Modena vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cosenza part of?
Modena vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 44% chance of winning, Cosenza a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Modena and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Modena and Cosenza in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.62x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
44%
2.26
33%
3.03
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Modena xG
Total xG
1.79
0.70
Cosenza xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Modena and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Modena and 0.70 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 25L across 61 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Modena against 1.08 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 12W 10D 8L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 4W 10D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.89 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 21D 25L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cosenza away?
Modena's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.53 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cosenza?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cosenza 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Modena and 27% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Cosenza in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 37% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Modena's recent games and 27% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cosenza tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.10 xG and Cosenza 0.70 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Cosenza attack 0.62 / defence 0.82, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 44% | Draw 33% | Cosenza 23%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Cosenza 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.31 PPG, Cosenza 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.