Modena 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Bari at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.10 PPG versus Bari's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Bari and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Bari trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 59% and Bari 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Bari 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.37 xG and Bari 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.939 / defence 0.973 | Bari attack 0.930 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.216. Data: 39 Modena games / 39 Bari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 29% | Bari 29%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Bari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 29% | Bari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Modena 1.37 / Bari 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.939 / def 0.973 | Bari attack 0.930 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bari xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Bari kick off?
Modena vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Bari?
Modena 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Modena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Bari part of?
Modena vs Bari is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Bari a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Modena and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 3 | Bari 1W.
What form are Modena and Bari in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.44
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Modena xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Bari xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Modena and 1.10 for Bari, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 17D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.05 PPG from 39 outings (8W 17D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.21 PPG, Bari on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (2W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.08 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Bari in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 10W 17D 12L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Bari have gone 8W 17D 14L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Bari away?
Modena's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.26 PPG; Bari away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Bari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Bari?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 47%, Bari 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Modena) and 47% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 32% of games; Bari in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Modena's games and 63% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Modena's recent games and 47% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Bari tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.37 xG and Bari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Bari attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Modena 42% | Draw 29% | Bari 29%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Bari 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.21 PPG, Bari 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.