Mantova 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cremonese — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Mantova in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 42% versus Cremonese 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 25% | Cremonese 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.06 xG and Cremonese 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.846 / defence 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.324 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.044. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Mantova games / 50 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Cremonese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mantova 40% | Cremonese 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Mantova 1.06 / Cremonese 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.846 / def 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.324 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cremonese xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Cremonese kick off?
Mantova vs Cremonese kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Mantova 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Mantova vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cremonese part of?
Mantova vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 29% chance of winning, Cremonese a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Mantova vs Cremonese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.85) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.02
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.31
1.25
Cremonese xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Mantova and 1.25 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mantova have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Cremonese travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cremonese away?
Mantova's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 2.20 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Cremonese 4-2 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 40%, Cremonese at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Mantova and 100% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Mantova's games and 100% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Mantova's matches and 100% of Cremonese's.
Do Mantova and Cremonese tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.06 xG and Cremonese 1.25 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 1.32 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 38%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 25%, Cremonese 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.