Lecco 0-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lecco host Brescia at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecco — last 1 games: 0W 0D 1L, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brescia have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brescia are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.48 xG and Brescia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 1.115 / defence 1.548 | Brescia attack 1.033 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Lecco's defence rating of 1.548 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 1 games and Brescia's last 39.
Result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 27% | Brescia 41%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.06 | Draw 3.74 | Brescia 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lecco's last 1 games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 4.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 27% | Brescia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Lecco 1.48 / Brescia 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 1.115 / def 1.548 | Brescia attack 1.033 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Brescia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Brescia xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecco vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Lecco vs Brescia kick off?
Lecco vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Brescia?
Lecco 0 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Lecco vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Brescia part of?
Lecco vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 33% chance of winning, Brescia a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lecco and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lecco vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lecco's attack at 1.11x the league average against Brescia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecco's last 1 games and Brescia's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.74
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lecco xG
Total xG
3.15
1.67
Brescia xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecco vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lecco and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lecco and 1.67 for Brescia, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Lecco have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecco.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecco are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Lecco's scoring rate against Brescia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Lecco have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Brescia in 0%.
Defensively: Brescia in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
Lecco (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecco
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Lecco vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Lecco and Brescia in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Brescia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Lecco or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Brescia in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
0
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecco vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Brescia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecco have won 0, Brescia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Brescia 4-1 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecco vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecco and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lecco's recent matches and 0% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecco and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lecco's recent games and 0% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecco and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lecco's recent matches and 0% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Lecco 0-2 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.48 xG and Brescia 1.67 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lecco fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 1.11 / defence 1.55 against Brescia attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 1/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 33% | Draw 27% | Brescia 41%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 100%, Brescia 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lecco managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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