Lecce 3-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lecce and Cosenza meet at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lecce's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecce have posted 2W 2D 0L at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
Cosenza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 0W 1D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Lecce — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 50% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 50% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.80 xG and Cosenza 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.146 / defence 1.006 | Cosenza attack 0.572 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Lecce games / 10 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 63% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 12%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Cosenza 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Lecce (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 63% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 41% | xG Lecce 1.80 / Cosenza 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.146 / def 1.006 | Cosenza attack 0.572 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Lecce (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Cosenza xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Cosenza kick off?
Lecce vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Cosenza?
Lecce 3 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Lecce vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Cosenza part of?
Lecce vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 63% chance of winning, Cosenza a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lecce and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Cosenza in?
Lecce (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.57x) against Lecce's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
63%
1.58
25%
4.00
12%
8.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.45
0.65
Cosenza xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
8.67
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
2%
52.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lecce and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lecce and 0.65 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lecce's recent record stands at 4W 5D 1L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 4L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Lecce against 1.40 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Cosenza away?
Lecce's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.00 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Lecce or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cosenza in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecce
1
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 1, Cosenza have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Cosenza 2-2 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Cosenza?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 50%, Cosenza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lecce) and 50% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cosenza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lecce's recent games and 50% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Cosenza tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cosenza 3-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.80 xG and Cosenza 0.65 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Cosenza attack 0.57 / defence 1.56, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 63% | Draw 25% | Cosenza 12%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 50%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.70 PPG, Cosenza 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.