Juve Stabia 1-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Virtus Entella (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Juve Stabia's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Juve Stabia 0W, Virtus Entella 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Virtus Entella — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 40% versus Virtus Entella 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 45% | Virtus Entella 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.55 xG and Virtus Entella 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.957 / defence 0.824 | Virtus Entella attack 0.732 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Juve Stabia games / 20 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 59% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 15%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Virtus Entella 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 30% | Virtus Entella 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 59% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Juve Stabia 1.55 / Virtus Entella 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.957 / def 0.824 | Virtus Entella attack 0.732 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Virtus Entella xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella part of?
Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 59% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.96) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.73x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.84
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.17
0.63
Virtus Entella xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
3%
32.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.63 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 7W 9D 4L from 20 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 8L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Virtus Entella heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 5W 5D 0L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Virtus Entella's away record stands at 0W 3D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.90 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 7W 9D 4L in their last 20 games (1.50 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Virtus Entella away?
Juve Stabia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 2.00 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.30 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Virtus Entella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Virtus Entella in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 30%, Virtus Entella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Juve Stabia and 40% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 30% of games; Virtus Entella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 40% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.55 xG and Virtus Entella 0.63 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Virtus Entella attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 59% | Draw 26% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 45%, Virtus Entella 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.